Posterior Probabilities: Dominance and Optimism
Sergiu Hart and Yosef Rinott
Abstract
The Bayesian posterior probability of the true state is stochastically
dominated by that same posterior under the probability law of the true
state. This generalizes to notions of "optimism" about posterior
probabilities.
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First version: September 2018
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The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Center for Rationality DP-730,
November 2019
- Revised: April 2020
- Economic Letters 194, Spetember 2020, Article 109352
doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109352
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© Sergiu Hart